2026-27 Budget changes and impact on Housing

Question

? What is the impact of the 2026-27 Budget housing tax changes on GDP? ? Have you modelled the Budget housing tax impacts - CGT and negative gearing - on GDP? ? What is this impact, can you share the analysis? If not, why not? ? What is a new house according to the new tax Bill - is it defined or not? ? Are granny flats covered? ? What new housing is in, what's not in? ? Why does the Bill half cover it? ? How many net new houses is the Budget supposed to deliver? ? What is the impact per year? How many houses? ? How did you do this modelling? Can you share it? ? Can you provide the modeling which claims that 75,000 extra first home buyers will be able to purchase a property? ? Has modelling been done as to how much of that result is attributable to the CGT change; rather than the negative gearing changes alone? ? What is the difference between the following statements in BP1: Page 133: ''These tax changes are estimated to support an additional 75,000 first home buyers over the decade'' and Page 158: ''Treasury modelling suggests that the reforms will increase the owner-occupier share of the housing market, resulting in around 75,000 additional owner-occupiers over the next decade''? ? Does the Treasury accept that cutting the CGT discount or limiting negative gearing will reduce housing supply, push up rents, and discourage investment? ? Do you think the changes will impact investment? If so how? If not why not? ? What advice did you provide the government / Treasurer on this? ? Can you share it? ? The property industry released modelling showing these changes will result in rents going up $9 a week on average. Why does your modeling only say $2 a week? ? The last time negative gearing was abolished, rents increased and the Government ultimately reversed the policy. Recent modelling suggests rents would rise by more than the Government has claimed. What advice did Treasury provide the Government on the likely impact on rents of changes to negative gearing? ? The investors likely to exit in response to the reforms are those providing rental housing in the high-demand urban markets where purchase is least affordable. ? Has Treasury modelled the net affordability effect - accounting for both downward pressure on established prices and upward pressure on rents - and at what point does the net outcome become positive for renters who cannot currently afford to purchase? ? Have you modelled the impact of the CGT and negative gearing changes on the rental stock in Australia? ? If yes, share please and what assumptions you used? ? If not why not? ? What specific red tape reductions are proposed to accelerate housing construction? In your Budget modelling assumptions? ? Which provisions or regulations will be removed or amended? ? The Budget papers state 65,000 new homes supported under the Local Infrastructure Fund. ? How was the estimate of 65,000 homes calculated? Can you share the modelling? ? Can you explain the framework that will apply to the Local Infrastructure Fund to ensure the funding is tied to the desired delivery outcomes on the ground? ? Who will be responsible for coordinating and tracking delivery? ? The Budget says ''Driven by reforms and investment that reduce barriers to housing supply, this Budget will also support up to 30,000 new homes over the next decade? ? How was this calculated? Can you share the modelling? ? Did you model the behavioural impact of the housing tax hikes? Is so what were they? If not why? ? Will people just hold on to houses and therefore the expected revenue gains will not materialise? ? Why are super funds allowed to retain CGT concessions and ordinary investors are not? ? What is your / Treasury advice on this to government? ? When did you first decide to make changes to CGT and negative gearing announced in the Budget, and related modelling? ? We note that the Treasury Organisation chart from 12 January 2026 had no additional areas under TAD for this modelling? ? But the Organisational chart from 13 April 2026 had these new areas? ? Does that mean you only did the modelling from February this year? ? In relation to the CGT negative gearing changes announced in the 2026-27 Budget: ? Which entities or peak bodies were consulted prior to the design of the policy? ? Why were widely held trusts, superannuation funds and Build to Rent developments excluded from the changes? ? What was the rationale for permitting foreign investors to continue acquiring individual new dwellings while restricting Australian individual investors from accessing negative gearing on established properties? ? Was modelling undertaken to assess the impact of the policy on the relative competitiveness of foreign capital versus Australian individual capital in the residential property market? ? In relation to the differential effective tax treatment that will apply from 1 July 2027: ? Please confirm or correct the analysis that a foreign investor holding Australian residential property through a Managed Investment Trust will be taxed at 15% on rental income and capital gains distributions. ? Please confirm or correct the analysis that an Australian individual investor holding Australian residential property will be subject to a minimum 30% tax rate on capital gains from 1 July 2027? ? If both of the above are accurate, please explain the policy rationale for foreign investors receiving a more favourable effective tax rate than Australian individual investors on the same asset class. ? When was this decision made? ? In relation to the negative gearing and capital gains tax changes announced in the 2026-27 Budget: ? What was the date on which Cabinet first considered the policy proposal that became the announced changes? ? On what date was final Treasury costing of the policy proposal submitted to the Treasurer? ? What is the revenue breakdown between the CGT; versus negative gearing changes - ie the $77 billion: ''The tax package which, over time, improves the underlying cash balance by $77.2 billion from 2025-26 to 2036-37''; BP1, p90.''? ? What is the year by year profile? ? What was the split between CGT, negative gearing and other tax increases? ? What is the revenue breakdown between housing and non-housing CGT assets? ? Has Treasury modelled the share of CGT paid by small and medium businesses under the changes? Why not? How can Treasury understand the impact if it has not modelled this? ? On 19 May, the Treasurer stated: ''Treasury tells us that the average tax rate on gross capital gains will be around 21.4 per cent by the end of the medium term, that 10-year horizon, which is up from 19.3 per cent today''. That is an increase in the average tax rate on capital gains, correct? ? What proportion of the additional revenue from the CGT changes is expected to come from residential investment property, and what proportion is expected to come from shares, managed funds, trusts, businesses and other non-property assets? ? If no answer, if the stated objective is to target housing affordability, surely you would understand the extent to which this policy actually affects housing? ? ATO data noted around 38 to 39 per cent of reported net capital gains relate to residential property. Do you accept that the majority of capital gains are not from residential property? ? If the majority of capital gains are not from residential property, why is the government using a broad-based CGT hike to solve a housing problem?