Hilton Quota Modelling

Question

Mr Jacenko: It's probably $6 million or $7 million, because we've done the numbers, for example, on the existing Hilton quota, with the 20 per cent going to zero, that's a saving of about $16.6 million a year. Mr Mina: It's important to pause here and make the point that this was a very hard-won feature of this access package on beef, just as the chilled and fresh components were. Senator CANAVAN: Clearly, it's not meaningful access, as others have said. No-one is excited in the red meat industry that I've met. Mr Mina: That's not access- Senator CANAVAN: The billion-dollar figure you came up with before-is that done from modelling? Has modelling been done here? Mr Mina: What it comes from is a rough estimation of export value figures using per-tonne prices and looking at both the access-the 35,000 tonnes on beef and the 25,000 tonnes on sheep meat. Senator CANAVAN: So it's applied to the full 35,000 tonnes-the billion dollars? Mr Mina: Yes, I think, roughly. Senator CANAVAN: But not all of that's new. So why would you- Mr Mina: For the improved access and the new access, roughly speaking, we're talking about around $700 million for the beef improvements and close to $300 million- Senator CANAVAN: So why haven't we done modelling? We typically do, or we have in the past. Mr Mina: No; our practice is not to typically do FTA modelling during negotiations. There have been occasions where we have in the past- Senator CANAVAN: Yes. Mr Mina: but it has not been for all. Senator CANAVAN: Are we doing some now? Mr Mina: The EU has done modelling, which has been useful, and of course some of that is in the public arena. But the government has not made a decision on future- Senator CANAVAN: Minister, are we doing modelling on this? Senator Ayres: I can come back to you on notice whether we're doing modelling. For some of these areas, modelling is not quite the right way to-